NFL Week 7: A Handicappers Point of View

There are several key week 7 NFL match-ups. To help you get an understanding of what is needed to handicap successfully, I will break down 2 of these games. The average gambler doesn’t know what to look at when breaking down NFL games. Most bettors generally use a teams past performance to dictate their NFL picks. This isn’t necessarily the wrong way to look at things, but you need to do so with caiution.

Brett Favre and the red-hot Minnesota Vikings go to Pittsburgh to take on Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. The current Vegas line for this game is Pittsburgh -5.5 at home. Most gamblers would look at a spread like this and initially think that Pitt is giving up way too many points. While it does seem to look that way, you should always ask the question, “Why?”. I’ve have learned through my 16 years as a professional handicapping, that if a pick looks easy it really isn’t! There is no such thing as a “lock”. A knowledge of handicapping and an understanding of point spreads is what makes a sports handicapper successful. If you haven’t put the time and effort in to handicapping games then you don’t stand a chance. The Steelers are in a great SITUATION here. They are heading into a BYE week, and have their defensive leader is back on the field. Expect a statement game from Big-Ben and Company as they win this one by double-digits.

Another interesting match-up is between the Bengals and Bears. This may normally not be a key game for either squad, but both have shown significant improvement from their 2008 seasons. The Bears made the biggest trade of the off-season, getting gun-slinger Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton. Orton never seemed to find his groove in Chicago. It may have been because of a week offensive line, or an offense that was vanilla. He has certainly changed his tune in Denver going 6-0 to start the season with 9 TD’s and only 1 pick. He has found a system that fits him, and he’s making the most of it. On the other side is Chicago with their new stud QB Cutler. While they have a respectable 3-2 record, they seem to be out of sync. Cutler has thrown 10 TD’s along with 7 interceptions. I know it takes time to get a groove with your receivers, but this has taken too long. There is also the Cedric Benson situation. Benson believes that the Bears tried to black-ball him in Chicago. He said they told other teams not to pick him up. Cincy did, and it has paid huge dividends. Benson has rushed for 531 yards and 4 touchdowns thus far, and looks to be on pace for one of his best seasons ever. The Vegas oddsmakers posted Cincy as 3 point favorite. That line has since dropped to 1. I’m not sold on this downward line movement. Sometimes Vegas will lead bettors with false line movement. I believe this is the case in this game. Bettors are taking Chicago at a 70% clip. Take the Bengals as they bounce back after an embarrassing loss at home to the Texans last week.

If you analyze each match-up taking into consideration the situation and point spread, you will give yourself a greater success rate on your NFL picks. Remember, nothing is a lock, and if it looks too good to be true……it is!

Related posts:

1. Week 6 Shows How Hard NFL Picks Are
2. NFL Week 9 Expert Picks
3. Favre is Changing Pre-Season NFL Predictions
4. NFL Week 9 Preview – Cowboys and the Eagles
5. NFL Week 9 Power Rankings

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