One key to an early season NFL picks strategy

The first part of trying to develop an early season NFL picks strategy is to simplify your approach. While the NFL season appears to be short and sweet, it is actually long and grueling in its entirety (speaking from a sports betting standpoint). That’s why I believe the best way to approach the season is to break it down into segments or mini-seasons. With a sixteen game regular season (forget about the scam known as preseason), I like to quarter it up into four 4-week segments.

The first four weeks of the season (a.k.a. the early season) are arguably the most unpredictable. The good news is they are unpredictable for the sportsbooks as well. The obvious reasons for such volatility in the early season are new lineups, lack of familiarity and cohesiveness within the teams, and a general deficiency of information. Let’s face it, weeks 1-4 are approached with a limited amount of useful data.

Having said this, the early season can provide huge opportunities for the sports bettor. Remember, the sportsbooks are still trying to evaluate each team and match-up just like you. Granted they have a more extensive system and what seems like unlimited resources, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still significant prospects each and every week within the posted lines.

The most important rule for betting the NFL anytime of the football season, but especially the early season, is look for underdogs. More specifically, look for home dogs that are getting 4 or more points. Home field advantage can be big and not properly credited when setting a line. In addition, getting 4 or more points is significant when most contests are settled by 3 or less. The combination of home cooking and a few extra points can be quite profitable for you the bettor.

It’s important to note that most bettors don’t bet underdogs. It’s also important to note that most bettors lose. Moral of the story: Don’t be most bettors. Keep these three things in mind when struggling with betting on a dog:

1. Every NFL team is trying their level best to win (especially in the early season).

2. You are not betting them to win, just to cover.

3. The difference between the best team and worst team in the NFL is far less than you think.

If you keep these things in mind and dig deep for those posted betting lines that are amiss, you will soon find that betting underdogs is a huge part of your early season NFL picks strategy.

Related posts:

1. Favre is Changing Pre-Season NFL Predictions
2. NFL Week 9 Expert Picks
3. Mid-Season Top Ten NFL Power Rankings
4. NFL Playoff Picks: Who’s in and Who’s Out
5. Week 6 Shows How Hard NFL Picks Are

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