Illinois at Purdue OVER 47

This total is low for a pair of teams that are having pretty good offensive seasons. This is probably due to two factors. First, both teams are coming off of a couple of low-scoring games. Illinois lost 7-17 against Ohio State, while Purdue lost at Penn State, 18-23. Both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions are good defensive teams without explosive offenses.

The other factor for this total is the appearance that both of these teams have average to above average defenses. Illinois allows just 17.7 points per game and Purdue allows 21 points per game – both respectable numbers. The problem with those numbers is that they are skewed by some performances against some pretty poor teams. Illinois has played Arkansas State and South Dakota State, allowing just nine points per game between those games. Purdue has two good defensive performances on the season, but one is a shutout against South East Missouri State and in the other they gave up only 17 points to Minnesota, the worst team in the Big Ten.

The point is that I do not think that the raw stats on these teams are very indicative of how good their defenses actually are. Illinois gave up 35 points at home against Northwestern and Purdue gave up 38 points at home against Notre Dame. These units are certainly vulnerable to give up points to good offenses.

Both teams are averaging over 30 points per game and both have had some of their best numbers against other Big Ten opponents. These squads are also both averaging over 400 yards of total offense per game, which leads me to believe they have even more potential to score points if they limit turnovers. I would also note that Illinois averages 41 points on the road this season, while Purdue is averaging 35.2 points per game at home on the year. I expect both teams to approach those numbers and for this game to fly over the posted total.

Jack Jones is an expert sports handicapper providing free and premium football picks to help his clients beat the college football spreads week-in and week-out.

 

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3. Big-10 Top 25 Showdown: Minnesota vs. Purdue
4. Fresno St & N. Illinois Battle in Humanitarian Bowl
5. Northern Illinois hosts Ball St in MAC Battle

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