Futures Odds and Win Totals can help with Football Picks

September 7, 2009

Handicapping the NFL futures odds is an important part to being successful with your football picks. The oddsmakers is Vegas are extremely accurate with their win total predictions. There are many factors that determine how the books set teams wins total. Here’s a look at what variables are looked at, and how they should affect your game by game approach during the course of the season.

Turnovers are a huge factor when figuring a teams wins and losses. Generally, a team with an unusually high number of turnovers in the previous season will have a much better season the following year. San Francisco (-17), Denver (-17), Dallas (-11) and Houston (-10) were all at least 10 turnovers in the negative for the 2008 season. Expect each of these teams to have improved turnover numbers this season that will translate into more wins. The “futures” odds for each of these teams, except for Denver (new quarterback), is higher this year than what they finished with in 2008.

Schedule is always an important part of the equation as well. Many teams that finished in the lower half in terms of wins and losses will benefit from a softer schedule. This will certainly increase their odds of winning. It is important to review a teams schedule to determine which games they are expected to win based on their futures wins total. If you do your homework, you will be able to benefit from taking teams in good situations. The season should be looked at as a whole, and not game by game. If Detroit is 0-7 and are listed as 7 point dogs in week 8, it may be a good time to take them based on what teams are left on there schedule and how many wins they were projected to have.

Major changes at quarterback or head coach are also important variables to consider when analyzing a teams season. The Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears switched QB’s this season. Thus, the Bears with Jay Cutler are expected to improve their win total from last season while Denver will falter with the unreliable Kyle Orton under center. This needs to be understood when making football picks on either of these teams during the season. Eleven teams have a new head coach in 2009. This means new offensive and defensive philosophies. Many of these situations will be for the better, but they will still require time to get everyone on the same page. Cross reference teams with coaching changes and the futures totals on wins this season compared to last. Small pieces of information like this may be the difference between winning or losing football picks throughout the year.

Key injuries are also an important part to NFL handicapping. The loss of Tom Brady early in the 2008 season may have cost the Patriots 2-3 wins and a playoff spot. The futures odds to win the division and Super Bowl changed dramatically when this happened. If you take a professional attitude when betting, you would have taken advantage of the situation with the Patriots and placed a few futures bets on the other favorites in the AFC (Pittsburgh) at a fairly good price. You must pay attention to every detail when betting. This is precisely what most gamblers don’t do, which is why they lose consistently.

Using futures odds and win totals will help you forecast situations during the season which will in turn help bring you profits. Making quality football picks is not something that is done the day before the game. Research and the knowledge of what to look for are the only way to remain rock solid and steady through the entire NFL year. Hopefully these tips will open your eyes on the world of handicapping, and give you some ammunition to hammer the books all season long.

Written by Cover The Number · Filed Under NFL, Sports Information

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