Cover The Number » Sports Betting

Streaks & Trends: The Good and the Bad

Cover The Number — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 05:25:16 +0000

Picking winners is not easy! The majority of professional handicappers have a variety of different systems in place to help them reach their final decision on a game. The more sports information that points towards a particular team in a game, the more confident a handicapper will feel about that pick.

Using streaks and trends can be helpful to a professional capper provided that the sports information given is legitimate. Determining whether or not a certain streak or trend is valuable to a match-up may be the difference between a winning play and a losing play. For the average gambler this becomes even more important, because they do not have a structured system in place to cross-check the streak or trend with. Here are some examples of what to look for.

Streaks (against the spread) are usually a product of the over or under value of a team in the eyes of the odds-makers. The most important aspect of deciding whether or not to use a streak statistic to help pick a team, is how long the streak has been going on. As a general rule, the longer a streak has occurred for, the more likely it is that it will come to an end. The key to utilizing a streak properly is to, “get in” at the right time. This means not waiting until every news paper, magazine and televisions show around is talking about how good or bad a team is performing. Odds-makers are too good, and they will eventually compensate the point-spread to adjust for the team’s success or failure. When this happens, you may find a great deal of value going against the “streaking” team.

Trends can be equally as important in helping to identify potentially winning picks. Finding a trend source that is reputable may be as important as the trend itself. There is so much information available on sporting events now, that a trend can be found for just about anything. Don’t get caught up in checking off multiple variables in order to see if a trend works. An example of this would be a trend that says, “Team X is 12-1 ATS on Thursday night as a road dog following back to back losses of more than 10 points”. Listen, you can find positive and negative betting trends for both sides in any given game, the hard part is determining which trends are worth using and which one’s aren’t. Knowing which sports information is credible, and having the ability to apply it, will make you a successful and profitable bettor.

College Basketball Picks: The Best Chance to Win ATS

Cover The Number — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:30:57 +0000

The NCAA basketball season in under way. College basketball gives the sports gaming community the best chance to be successful. I have found over the course of my 15 years as an expert handicapper, that betting on college hoops gives you the best opportunity to find winning picks.

There are so many teams playing at different levels in NCAAB. Many people don’t realize that the more games that are on the board, the better chance you have of finding a line discrepancy or value for your bet. This is the most important part of making sports predictions. Putting your money down on a game that gives you the greatest chance of winning is what we are all looking for. On a typical Saturday in college basketball there are well over 50 games. If you have read some of my previous articles on betting, then you will know that this affords us a chance to spread our money out on several match-ups that offer point spread value and situational advantages.

Many gamblers believe in finding 1 or 2 games that they like, and “loading up” on them. In reality, if you can find 5 or more that fit my guidelines you have a greater chance for success. Have a dollar figure in mind before you place a wager. This figure should be a small percentage of your overall bankroll. After you have done your homework and found the games that fit the criteria, spread that money amongst those picks evenly. Again, there is no such thing as a lock. Betting a limited amount of games puts bettors at a disadvantage. There is a “human” element in all sports games that may affect the outcome for better or worse. Don’t have all of your eggs in one basket with a large portion of your bankroll on any single bet.

You will be the recipient of “bad beats”. It is inevitable and almost impossible to avoid. Having your money spread out will limit the damage that can be done by these “bad beats”. Over the course of the year, you will find that your consistency level increases with this method. Those weeks when you lost your entire bankroll won’t happen any longer. Remember, you need to stay on top of the sport you are betting. Making successful NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, MLB, and NBA picks takes a tremendous amount of patience and diligence. Put the time in and you will be rewarded.

Sports Handicapping 101: Don’t bet on Bad Teams

Cover The Number — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:32:51 +0000

Don’t bet on bad teams! This may seem like an amazingly obvious statement in regards to making sports picks, but you’d be surprised how many people do it. Saying to not bet on bad teams doesn’t imply that you should never take underdogs in a match-up. I actually recommend taking underdogs because many favorites have inflated point spreads. This in-turn gives the people that have bet the underdog an advantage against the spread. What I mean is to not bet teams that have a knack for making mistakes and giving their opponents easy chances to score.

I have said in past articles that it is important to find value in a game by analyzing the spread, and taking the side that the line favors. This is true in most situations EXCEPT when the team that the line favors is a “bad team”. Bad teams are categorized as teams that have a tendency to give games away. Football teams that turn the ball over consistently giving the opponent good field position would be classified as bad teams. In basketball, teams that take bad shots and make too many turnovers would be considered bad teams. Staying away from these potentially bad teams will keep you ahead of the game, and up on your bookie. Patience is required, because many times the only game on may be involving one of these “bad teams”. I’m not implying that you take the favorite either, but more often than not the bad team will find a way to not cover the spread for you.

Making quality NCAAB, NCAAF, NBA and NFL predictions take many years of hard work dissecting the art of handicapping. Taking the time to study point spreads and match-ups will give you an advantage over the average gambler. Staying away from putting your hard earned money on teams that have a tendency to beat themselves, is also part of the equation to being successful on sports betting. Many handicappers have the same point of view, but will choose a bad team in a game to give his “action junky” clients something to bet on if it’s the only game on. This is something I don’t do as an expert handicapper. I believe in only giving my customers the best advantages against the spread that I can find. Hopefully the tips I am giving you will save you from making a mistake down the road. Good luck!

Futures Odds and Win Totals can help with Football Picks

Cover The Number — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 23:19:57 +0000

Handicapping the NFL futures odds is an important part to being successful with your football picks. The oddsmakers is Vegas are extremely accurate with their win total predictions. There are many factors that determine how the books set teams wins total. Here’s a look at what variables are looked at, and how they should affect your game by game approach during the course of the season.

Turnovers are a huge factor when figuring a teams wins and losses. Generally, a team with an unusually high number of turnovers in the previous season will have a much better season the following year. San Francisco (-17), Denver (-17), Dallas (-11) and Houston (-10) were all at least 10 turnovers in the negative for the 2008 season. Expect each of these teams to have improved turnover numbers this season that will translate into more wins. The “futures” odds for each of these teams, except for Denver (new quarterback), is higher this year than what they finished with in 2008.

Schedule is always an important part of the equation as well. Many teams that finished in the lower half in terms of wins and losses will benefit from a softer schedule. This will certainly increase their odds of winning. It is important to review a teams schedule to determine which games they are expected to win based on their futures wins total. If you do your homework, you will be able to benefit from taking teams in good situations. The season should be looked at as a whole, and not game by game. If Detroit is 0-7 and are listed as 7 point dogs in week 8, it may be a good time to take them based on what teams are left on there schedule and how many wins they were projected to have.

Major changes at quarterback or head coach are also important variables to consider when analyzing a teams season. The Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears switched QB’s this season. Thus, the Bears with Jay Cutler are expected to improve their win total from last season while Denver will falter with the unreliable Kyle Orton under center. This needs to be understood when making football picks on either of these teams during the season. Eleven teams have a new head coach in 2009. This means new offensive and defensive philosophies. Many of these situations will be for the better, but they will still require time to get everyone on the same page. Cross reference teams with coaching changes and the futures totals on wins this season compared to last. Small pieces of information like this may be the difference between winning or losing football picks throughout the year.

Key injuries are also an important part to NFL handicapping. The loss of Tom Brady early in the 2008 season may have cost the Patriots 2-3 wins and a playoff spot. The futures odds to win the division and Super Bowl changed dramatically when this happened. If you take a professional attitude when betting, you would have taken advantage of the situation with the Patriots and placed a few futures bets on the other favorites in the AFC (Pittsburgh) at a fairly good price. You must pay attention to every detail when betting. This is precisely what most gamblers don’t do, which is why they lose consistently.

Using futures odds and win totals will help you forecast situations during the season which will in turn help bring you profits. Making quality football picks is not something that is done the day before the game. Research and the knowledge of what to look for are the only way to remain rock solid and steady through the entire NFL year. Hopefully these tips will open your eyes on the world of handicapping, and give you some ammunition to hammer the books all season long.

MLB Predictions: How to Make a Profitable Baseball Pick

Cover The Number — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 01:27:37 +0000

Making a baseball pick can be made easier with the use of a few simple factors to key in on. Many bettors make the mistake of putting too much emphasis on pitching. While the starting pitchers play a significant role in handicapping a ballgame, it is not the only thing that needs to be reviewed when making MLB predictions.

Teams on a “Hot Streak”, regardless of their record, usually have good value when making baseball picks. During the course of a 162 game season, every team will have points when they’re confidence and chemistry is at its peak. Taking a team that is valued as a +185 underdog, but have won 3 or 4 games in a row may be a risk worth taking. Not as much money needs to be wagered on teams in this situation because of the value you are getting.

Another key to keep your eye on is head to head match-ups. Some teams simply have an edge on others. This may be due to previous success, or several other factors. Either way, it is something to be aware of and used when making MLB predictions.

Using pitching match-ups to break down a game is important, but only if you are looking at it as a whole. Just comparing pitchers isn’t enough. Is the better pitcher coming off of a loss? Is the team that the better pitcher is on, hitting well? All of these factors come into play when making baseball picks. Making sure that all of these factors are favoring the team that you select may increase you probability of winning by 10-15%. This may not seem significant, but hitting 60-65% of your MLB predictions is extremely profitable.

The final factor to use is a difficult one, Umpires! Knowing which umpire will be calling the game can help you get an edge on the game. Even though the major league strike zone is supposed to be the same at all ballparks and every situation, we all know that it varies from game to game. Each individual umpire has their own preconceived strike zone that may benefit or hurt a pitcher’s chances of being successful. An umpire with a loose strike zone will make it easier for a pitcher. This can also help in making baseball picks on “over’s and under’s”. Having a tight strike zone will usually lead to more walks, which in turn leads to more runs.

Many people believe that making MLB predictions is almost impossible. This is simply not true. Making a profitable baseball pick requires a much more diligent approach, a thorough knowledge of the game and staying up to date on what is going on with each team, pitcher and situation.

Handicapping the Final Four

Cover The Number — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 00:01:37 +0000

There are many different variables used to handicap sports. If you are knowledgeable at college basketball handicapping, you understand that each sport requires a slight variation in order to be successful. College basketball predictions are no exception to that rule!

College sports as a whole (NCAAF, NCAAB) are a much different animal to tackle than professional sports. The level of talent from team to team in pro sports is fairly even. This puts a much bigger emphasis on coaching and chemistry. College sports are more true to form, meaning that the better team will win at a greater percentage. The hard part in college basketball handicapping is determining who the better team is.

In the NBA, MLB, NFL and NHL, the better team is indicated by record. In most of the major sports teams will play one another regularly which will eventually allow the cream to rise to the top. College basketball handicapping is much harder. Each conference has a different level of play and talent. An average team in the Big East is usually much better than the best team in a smaller conference such as the Atlantic-10 or Mountain West.

This is exactly why college basketball predictions for the NCAA tournament are so difficult to handicap. However, as the field gets narrowed down it becomes easier. Now that we are at the Final Four, you can see that the teams with talent, chemistry and good coaching have all prevailed.

Michigan St is a hard nosed, defensively oriented Big-10 team that has one of the best coaches in the business in Tom Izzo. They have been fortunate to of had a few good match-up along the way, but they have shown that they were up to the task.

North Carolina began the season as the unanimous pre-season number one team in the country. The Tar Heels had a few let downs during the season due to injury, but now they are back at full strength. Coach Roy Williams has acquired a wealth of talent and is primed and ready to capture another NCAA National Championship.

The Villanova Wildcats may have been slightly overlooked during the season. They were considered by many as the 4th or 5th best team in their conference. Nova has proven all of their critics wrong during the tourney as they have taken out UCLA, Duke and Pittsburgh in consecutive games.

Jim Calhoun and the perennial powerhouse UCONN Huskies came into the tourney as a number one seed. They have held serve with relative ease thus far and are looking to cut down the nets on Monday.

Now that we are closing in on who will be crowned the NCAA basketball National Champions, most professional handicappers will be extremely prepared and successful in making their predictions. Knowing that all of these teams come from somewhat the same mold, makes it slightly easier to analyze each game. This in turn will create a much higher success rate in making college basketball predictions.

Don’t try to guess the outcome of these games based on gut feelings. Take the advice of a professional that knows college basketball handicapping and allow them to put their college basketball predictions and your money to work for you!

Money Management in Sports Betting

Cover The Number — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 11:46:59 +0000

Money management is vital to anyone trying to make a profit wagering on sports. Too many gamblers focus their attention on winning percentages and that one lock of the week they can place most of their bankroll on. This is a recipe for disaster. At the start of the season you must set aside a starting bankroll. While bankroll size will differ from player to player, you should never exceed 5% of your bankroll on any single play.

Smart players don’t fall into the many pitfalls that lie in wait for those who don’t have strong money management guidelines in place at the start of the season. Keeping your wagers within the size of your budget will protect your bankroll throughout the long football season. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A LOCK. Now go back and read the last sentence five more times before we move on. This is the biggest mistake gamblers make year after year. Anything can happen on any given Sunday. Problem gamblers get into trouble when they try to triple their winnings or try to win back their losses on that game that looks like the lock of the year. Having strict guidelines early and not having the urge to load up on that one sports pick that just can’t miss will protect your bankroll and lead you to a profitable season.

Taking Dogs: Profitable Sports Picks

Cover The Number — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 13:42:55 +0000

Every time you ask your buddy what sports picks he likes in this weekend’s games he will always give you a list filled with favorites. Las Vegas loves the fact that the majority of gamblers will only take favorites. This is the reason every time you go back to Vegas a new million dollar hotel is being erected. This strategy might work if you’re a beginner who doesn’t know the ins and outs of being a profitable gambler. But if you want to step up to the next level of sports betting you cannot be afraid of taking underdogs. When you purchase one of my betting sheets you will see that I will take about 50% of my plays on underdogs. If you ever had an advisor that gave you all favorites he’s either a terrible handicapper or just too lazy to put in the work to find quality underdogs. Your typical Joe six pack gambler will never put his hard earned money on an underdog. He might get on a little run and win a few games, but at the end of the football season I can guarantee you he will not turn a profit.

With this knowledge in hand Vegas will bump up the point spread on a favorite because they know everyone is going to take the hot favorite no matter where they put the number at. This attitude really pays off when you start taking money lines. Forget about the point spread you would be surprised at how many underdogs win the game outright. Next time you place sports picks don’t be afraid of taking a dog with a big b

The Science of Money Management

Cover The Number — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 23:59:06 +0000

Being successful in sports betting requires two essential ingredients. The first is having the largest margin between wins and losses. Although this may seem obvious, there is more complexity involved than you may think. The common betting public believes that winning percentage is the key statistic needed to be successful in sports betting. This is not entirely true! Winning percentage is very important but not necessarily the most accurate barometer in determining how profitable your season of sports betting will be.

With all bets being equal, you will increase your bankroll faster if you make more bets (even if your overall winning percentage is lower) rather than making fewer bets with a higher win rate. Let’s say you go 4-1 (80%) on all your plays for a given weekend. If you are a $100/game player, you would have profited $290. During that same weekend, if you had made more plays and gone 7-3 (70%) you would have profited $370. At 4-1 you would be +3 for the weekend as opposed to +4 if you had gone 7-3. This is why your overall plus/minus is more important than your winning percentage.

The second necessity for successful sports betting is the size of your wagers. Keeping your wagers consistent is a must. When I say “consistent” I’m not implying that you wager the same amount for every game all year long. All wagers should be based on the size of your bankroll. If you start the year with $500, you should wager no more than 5% (or $25) of your bankroll on any 1 game. Now, let’s say after 3 weeks you have increased your bankroll to $1000. By using the same rule of only betting 5% of your bankroll or less, you will now be wagering $50 per game.

Using consistency and discipline in your sports betting will allow you to weather the volatility in wins and losses during the course of a season and keep your bankroll moving in a positive direction.

Put the Odds in Your Favor

Cover The Number — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 23:55:19 +0000

Unless you are a professional handicapper with years of experience using a proven system, then being successful at sports betting is almost impossible. Winning ATS (against the spread) is less than a 50/50 proposition for the average gambler.

To make sports betting a profitable venture and taking the “gambling” aspect out of the equation, you will be required to follow a few simple rules. First and foremost you will need to retain the services of a reputable and proven professional. One of the most common misconceptions is that the average Joe thinks he is capable of handicapping sports games on his own. Don’t fool yourself! Having a couple of winning weeks in a row does not make you a pro. It is very similar to investing in the stock market. If you are going to invest your money in it, it is better that you have the security of using a stock broker that knows the best way to do it.

The same theory applies to sports betting. However, using a professional alone does not guarantee you success. Having access to valuable information and knowing how to utilize it to the fullest are two totally separate things. Follow your sports handicappers instructions as you would your stock broker. Bet all of his plays equally or with slight variation depending on whether or not there is a rating system involved. Do not parlay all of the picks together with the hopes of getting rich quick. Trust me, you won’t!

Pleaser bets as well as long shot proposition bets are enticing, but they are not safe and will diminish your bankroll eventually. Teaser bets have value if they are used correctly. A two team 6 point teaser can be a good tool to take advantage of. Sportsbooks are realizing that as well. Over the last few years almost all of the sportsbooks have changed the pay-out on two team 6 point teasers from even money to 11/10. That in itself should tell you that if it is used correctly it can be profitable. On any given week you will find teams that cover the pointspread by double-digits. With that being said, stay away from the 3 and 4 team special teasers that try to “sucker” you in by giving you 10-13 points.

Stay consistent, get good information, make smart decisions and take betting seriously. If you follow these steps with the help of a professional handicapper you will, over the long haul, achieve a positive cash flow.