2011 Home Run Derby Odds and Tips

The odds for the 2011 Major League Baseball Home Run Derby are out, and in my opinion the baseball experts have given us a great opportunity to get a nice return on our investment. It’s not advisable to make a substantial wager on All-Star games or related events. However it can be a profitable venture if you stay within your betting limits and hedge your bets the correct way.

As expected, Jose Bautista is a 3/1 favorite to win the Derby, and rightfully so. He leads all of baseball with 31 homers heading into the break, and has led baseball in that category for the last 18 months. I would certainly recommend placing some money on “Joey Bats” to get the job done on Monday and take home the title, but not all of it!!

The key to making money on events like this is to have the mindset that you’re not going to get rich doing so. Loading up on one player, and putting all of your eggs in one basket is never a good idea. That’s exactly why I suggest putting one-third of the amount of money you plan on wagering on the Derby towards Bautista.

There is no doubt that power has a lot to do with hitting home runs, but as we’ve learned in the past, consistency is more important to WINNING the event. The first round leader often doesn’t close the deal as Josh Hamilton, Corey Hart and David Wright can attest to. In terms of consistency, Adrian Gonzalez would be my pick. He has a beautifully fluid swing that may end up beating everyone in the field including American League Captain David Ortiz who picked him to participate. At 7/1, Gonzalez is definitely worth putting some money on.

The rest of the field’s odds are as follows: Prince Fielder 7/2, David Ortiz 7/2, Matt Holliday 4/1, Matt Kemp 7/1, Robinson Cano 15/2 and Rickie Weeks 12/1. Cano may be a sweet swinging lefty, but he has too level of a swing to consistently hit enough home runs from round to round to compete. Weeks doesn’t deserve to be here, but is having a tremendous season. Holliday has just 12 bombs on the season, but has the potential to compete as he regularly puts on phenomenal displays of power during batting practice. Fielder has a Home Run Derby Championship under his belt, and may be a solid choice to regain his title. MLB handicappers base these odds on where they stand in the public’s eyes, and where they stand currently in home runs on the season.

Kemp is a strong and talented young player that has the type of swing that can be successful in events like this. Putting a few bucks on Kemp at 7/1 wouldn’t be a bad idea. Make sure you do the math, and calculate the odds for each player selected so that you will turn a profit if anyone of them wins. The key is to eliminate several of the players to start, and narrow the field down to 3 or 4. Once you’ve done that, figure out how much you’d like to wager as a total and divide that money over the 3 or 4 players so that you’ll make more than your investment if that player wins. Good luck!

 

Related posts:

1. 2011 All-Star Game Will be Pitcher’s Duel
2. Put the Odds in Your Favor
3. Futures Odds and Win Totals can help with Football Picks
4. Portland looks to Hold Serve at home on Thursday
5. 2011 Independence Bowl Overview

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